The Nifty 50 index is expected to experience high volatility in June and July 2025 due to several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Key events include the RBI’s monetary policy meeting expected first week of June, where any downgrade in inflation forecast by the RBI will positively impact market sentiment. The early onset of monsoon would also give a lift to the market.

Historically, June has exhibited moderate volatility for the Indian indices. Historic data indicates that June is among the less volatile months, with average fluctuations around 1.2% over the past decade. In 2024, the index gained 3.5% in June, supported by strong FII inflows and easing global inflation concerns. However, in 2022, it dropped 4% due to aggressive Fed rate hikes and recession fears.

In the weeks leading up to June, Nifty 50 has climbed sharply to 25,000 marking a nearly 9% rally since April. This surge has been led by IT, energy, and selective large-cap financials. However, the India VIX has also inched higher, reflecting market unease beneath the bullish surface. FIIs have turned net sellers over the last few sessions. Technical indicators are now flashing caution: RSI is deep in overbought territory, and MACD signals are flattening — suggesting a potential pause or mean-reversion ahead. Looking forward, markets are likely to enter a volatility phase. Nifty 50 index may face resistance near the 25,300–25,500 zone. In June 2025, the Nifty 50 could trade in a wide range 22,500–24,000 depending on domestic and global triggers.