The Euro has recovered above the $1.16 mark. Geopolitical tensions out of the West Asia conflict has receded today after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, investors are closely watching the statements from both the countries.

On the economic front, the European Central Bank continued its cycle of rate cuts, lowering its key interest rates by 25 basis points. After their latest meeting in June, President Lagarde hinted that the ECB has reached the end of the easing cycle. Several other members also commented in line with President Lagarde. Further, latest data showed that the Eurozone’s economy grew by 1.5% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations for zero growth. Latest PMI data showed that EZ manufacturing sector is yet to register growth. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index remaining unchanged at 49.4, signalling continued stagnation in the sector. The ECB will now adopt a wait and see approach before their next move or leave policy rates unchanged for a prolonged period. This stance would be positive for Euro and the Fed’s next move would be a rate cut.

Technically, EURUSD remains in a range of 1.14 to 1.16, where 1.1631 acts as a resistance level and 1.1452 acts as a support level. Indicators like RSI lies above 50, indicating towards a bullish trend. In near term, factors such as US-EURO trade deal regarding tariffs, global dollar strength and geopolitical uncertainties will affect the further path of euro. If the pair breaks the resistance level, could pave the way for 1.18 – 1.20 range. On the downside, breakoff 1.1452 support level would end the present uptrend for steep losses. (least favoured scenario).