Brent crude is currently supported by expectations of increasing seasonal demand amid rising geopolitical tensions. The nuclear talks between Iran and US is inconclusive. If Iran rejected US’s proposals, White House may come up with severe sanctions on buyers of crude from Iran. Output from Canada was also hampered by wildfires in Albert, estimated to be over 344K barrels per day, about 7% of output from Canada. However, the same was partially compensated by increase in crude supplies to the extent of 411K bpd by the OPEC.

U.S. crude production remains stable at 13.4 MMBPD, with producers maintaining fiscal discipline amid volatile market conditions. Despite stronger exports and high refinery utilization, demand indicators have softened, particularly as China is manufacturing PMI signals contraction.

Global risk factors—including recession concerns, trade tensions and currency volatility—continue to weigh on sentiment. Nonetheless, seasonally strong demand from the summer driving season could provide short-term price support for Brent, although the upside remains capped by macroeconomic fragility.

Technical analysis:

•Brent is range-bound between $59 support and $68 resistance, showing sideways movement.

•Break above $68 may push prices to $70–72, below $59 downside risk increases.