• Spot rupee ended at 94.94/95 to a dollar after opening at 94.79/80 level. The rupee was under pressure as global crude oil prices surged higher amid tensions in the Middle East. Equity market benchmarks ended lower for the 7th successive session. NSE Nifty closed 0.4 lower while BSE Sensex ended about 0.2 lower today.
• USD index is trading slightly higher at 101.76 level today, close to a three-week low as falling Treasury yields weighed on the currency. A selloff in technology and AI-related stocks prompted safe-haven demand for government bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 5. Concerns about the sustainability of AI investment also raised questions about a key driver of US economic growth and tempered expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
• The GBP received support from stronger-than-expected UK business activity data, with the Composite PMI rising to an eight-month high of 53.1 in October from 52.0 in September. Both manufacturing and services expanded at a faster pace. However, September retail sales fell 0.4 month-on-month, highlighting continued pressure on consumer spending. Rising input costs and persistent inflationary pressures remain concerns. Overall, resilient business activity provided near-term support for sterling, although subdued consumer demand and higher business costs could limit further gains.
• However, the Euro remained under pressure near $1.12 following weaker-than-expected eurozone PMI data. The Composite PMI declined to 51.9 in October from 53.1 in September, marking the slowest expansion in four months. Growth moderated across manufacturing and services. The Euro’s near-term outlook remains vulnerable ahead of next week’s inflation data and ECB policy meeting.
• Key data releases ahead today: US: Flash Mfg. and Services PMI.

Rupee opened lower at 94.80 levels, as global crude oil prices returned to post war highs. Equity market benchmarks are trading in the positive territory.

Global financial markets remained cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

The US 10-year Treasury yield declined nearly 9 basis points to 5.04, its lowest level in about a month, as equity market volatility and concerns over elevated AI valuations prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, below expectations of 200,000, signalling continued labour market resilience. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates at its October 27–28 meeting, while attention remains focused on the upcoming PCE inflation data and the possibility of a December rate hike.