Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	84.80-87.50	1.1000-1.1800	1.3100-1.3800	140.00-160.00	0.7800-0.8600
Sentiment against USD	Negative	Positive	Positive	Negative	Negative
Forecast for the day	85.30-85.80	1.1640-1.1760	1.3660-1.3790	143.65-144.85	0.7985-0.8035

Spot rupee closed at 85.48/49 to a dollar level after opening at 85.50/51 level. The rupee appreciated as risk sentiment improved amid inflows into the equity markets alongside dollar weakness. Equity market benchmarks ended about 0.35 higher.
DXY is trading lower at 97.15 level. Dollar is drifting lower on talk that President Trump may soon announce a replacement for Chair Powell who may be agreeable for rate cuts. Meanwhile, risk sentiment improved after US and China have agreed to a Trade Pact, details of which will be announced soon.
On the data front, France’s CPI in June rose 0.9 y/y beating forecasts for a 0.7 m/m rise as per preliminary estimates. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3, rebounding from a 0.1 drop in May and above expectations of a 0.2 gain. Spain's annual inflation rate inched up to 2.2 in June 2025 from a seven-month low of 2 in May and against market expectations it would remain steady at 2, according to preliminary estimates. The core rate, excluding volatile items like food and energy, stood at 2.2, unchanged from the prior month.
EURUSD is holding steady at 1.1703, GBPUSD is at 1.3738 level.
Important data releases scheduled today: US: Personal Income m/m; Personal Spending m/m; Rev. Univ. of Michigan Consumer sentiment; Inflation expectations;

Rupee opened 20 paisa higher at 85.50 levels, amid FII/FPI buying in domestic markets due to optimism about US-India trade deal and USD weakness. Equity market benchmarks are in positive territory extending their gains for the fifth day. Benchmark indexes are up 0.25 in early trades.

DXY is trading lower at 97.28 level today. Several data released overnight confirmed the slowdown in the US economy pressurizing the DXY and bond yields. US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.5 in Q1 2025, a sharper decline than the second estimate of a 0.2 drop and the first quarterly contraction in three years, largely due to a sharp rise in imports ahead of the tariff implementation. Secondly, US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 236k in the week ending June 21, below expectation of 247k.

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