MECKLAI FX RISK MANAGEMENT SURVEY
The 2nd Annual Mecklai FX Risk Management Survey was conducted in Jan/Feb 2009. We had a total of 55 respondents (45 last year), 45 new ones plus 10 repeats from last year. The survey was designed to correct for the unprecedented volatility in 2008 by selecting respondents who were similar in structure and management focus to the companies who participated last year.
April 2009

THE END OF THE GLOBAL RECESSION
In spite of suffering the worst housing slowdown since the Great Depression,US economic growth dipped only marginally into negative territory in Q3 08.
21/01/2009

THE CREDIT CRISIS AND THE RUPEE
Till December 2007, Asia appeared immune to the credit crisis. Indeed, with capital flows reaching unprecedented levels in SH2007, many felt that Asia,in general, and India, in particular, had decoupled from the US economy.
11/11/2008

COMMODITIES AND THE DOLLAR
Commodity prices, which have taken over the headlines recently, have actually been on an uptrend since 2001. Unsurprisingly, the dollar has been falling steadily since about that time, too, despite the fact that US interest rates have had a relatively up and down ride during this period.
01/05/2008

THE CARBON MARKET - A PRIMER
The carbon market has evolved quietly over the past few years to where it is now one of the sexier new games in town; the Ministry of Food & Civil Supplies has notified carbon credits as a commodity permissible for futures trading under the FCRA, and MCX has already started offering futures on carbon credits.
01/01/2008

WILL THE DOLLAR GLITTER MORE THAN GOLD IN 2008?
Gold has been in a bull market since 2000, with the nominal price coming very close to its all time high of $ 854 per troy ounce (which was registered in 1980) earlier this month, before slipping back around $ 800.
01/11/2007

TRYING TO CLOSE THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT
The nature of politicians (charitably speaking) is to believe that what's good for them is good for the country.
01/08/2007

TAKING STOCK OF THE RUPEE’S RISE
The rupee has appreciated by more than 14 percent from its low of 47.04 touched in July 2006. More than half this appreciation has come over the past two months.
01/05/2007

WILL GLOBAL RISK AVERSION RISE IN 2007
The sharp decline in global volatility since around 2002 has come in for much analysis and comment.
01/01/2007

FORECASTING THE RUPEE
We have developed a quantitative model that explains movements in USD/INR since 2001
15/11/2006

THE CANADIAN DOLLAR
When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold. But Canada (and Mexico) could catch pneumonia. Historic fact, and still a reality.
03/10/2006

GETTING EDGY, BUT STILL A DOLLAR BULL
The sudden jump in the rupee last week was doubtless related to the release of the report of the Committee on "Fuller" Capital Account Convertibility.
11/09/2006

ONE MORE DOWNWARD BURST?
With the rupee having slipped into a narrow groove around 46.50 for nearly a month, and many companies still nursing wounds incurred as a result of overdoing exotics ...
28/08/2006

A DOG CHASING ITS TAIL
Looking closely at foreign currency reserves data makes it apparent that the recent sharp fall in the rupee was engineered by RBI.
14/08/2006

RIDING THE RUPEE ROLLER COASTER
Over the past year, the rupee has turned into quite a roller coaster, with a couple of heart-stopping collapses ...
31/07/2006

GETTING BOMBAY BACK
Sunil, a young man who worked for one of our group companies, died in the bomb blasts last week
17/07/2006

RALLY OR SUCKER PUNCH?
Global asset markets (including the Sensex) have shown signs of recovery recently, accelerating at the end of last week when the U.S. Fed raised its key rate by the 17th straight quarter point to 5.25%.
03/07/2006

HAS THE GOLD BULL TURNED INTO A BEAR?
Since the beginning of this year till the 12th of May, the spot price of gold zoomed like a vertical parabola from $517 per troy ounce to $730 per troy ounce.
19/06/2006

LET’S HEAR IT FOR CLAUSE 49!
Since compliance with Clause 49 of SEBI's listing agreement became mandatory as of April 1, 2005, all listed companies have, in their March 2006 accounts, certified that the CEO and CFO "have evaluated the effectiveness of the internal control systems of the company ...
05/06/2006

  A TALE OF TWO METALS
The non-ferrous metals markets had Charles Dickens turning in his grave over the past three years since it was the best of times and it was the best of times.
22/05/2006

LOOK OUT BELOW - VOLATILITY RISING
In media circles, summer is known as the "silly season", and with the temperature rising, the champas and bougainvillea in full bloom, I feel a bit silly myself.
08/05/2006

THE END OF GREENSPAN'S CONUNDRUM
Alan Greenspan, who retired in January as one of the longest-running and most-successful chairmen of the US Federal Reserve, will be remembered for many things, including his addition to the lexicon of finance - "irrational exuberance".
24/04/2006

CAPTURING OPPORTUNITY
Most readers of this column are probably tired of my constantly talking about managing risk - don't buy exotic derivatives, don't take a position unless you are sure your benchmark is protected ...
10/04/2006

TREASURY OUTSOURCING
With market volatility already high, and certain to continue to rise, as capital account convertibility becomes a reality, companies need to substantially increase their focus on their forex risk management processes.
27/03/2006

PLAIN VANILLA OPTIONS - A PRODUCT WHO’S TIME HAS COME
With rupee volatility hovering around 6% for most of 2006 so far, managing USD/INR risk is becoming more and more challenging, particularly with 10 to 15 paise inter-day moves not uncommon.
13/03/2006

EXTERNAL COMMERCIAL BORROWINGS
What role ECB has to play in our growth story? If we look at ECB as a vehicle for foreign direct investment, we can appreciate the role of ECB better in promoting economic growth.
27/02/2006

A FOOL'S FORECAST
Having been involved with financial markets for a long time, I have learned several forecasting tricks, all of which have to do with not really saying anything.
13/02/2006

Goan Masala Budget
Just back from a few wonderful days in Goa, and, you know, it keeps getting better and better.
30/01/2006

Jumping on the bandwagon
As the year turns, the world of market analysts appears to be divided into two - those, mostly in the U.S., who appear sanguine about U.S. growth and the likelihood of the Fed's continued success ...
16/01/2006

Where Are The Bears?
Goldilocks has been skipping around the forest, breaking and entering into new highs everywhere, not even cautious anymore - where are the bears?
02/01/2006

Pushing Towards The Real World?
Wow! Has the rupee arrived?
20/12/2005

Never Say Never
It is abundantly clear from the recent price action that sentiment has turned towards a weaker rupee, with the market steadily pushing the rupee lower
05/12/2005

Have Oil Prices Peaked?
Over the past two to three years, managing a short commodity position has been fairly straightforward - BUY, BUY, BUY. Most commodity markets, while highly volatile, have gone straight up - aluminium has risen by over 50%, copper by 75% and crude, even off its highs, has gone up by over 75% since January 2003.
21/11/2005

Another Valentine’s Day Massacre?
The original "Valentine's Day massacre" was an event in 1929 when notorious mobster Al Capone [tried to] clean up the opposition by wiping out members of a rival [Bugs Moran] gang.
07/11/2005

Is the NDF market driving the rupee?
Over the past few months, "NDF arbitrage" has been the easiest whipping boy in the forex market whenever the rupee loses ground, and, indeed, there appears to be considerable evidence - both anecdotal and analytic - that this may well be the case.
24/10/2005

In the long run
We will all be Indian. Keynes was wrong. Darwin was right.
18/10/2005

Where will the rupee be on dec 31, 2005?
The poll, which had 100 respondents, was taken over a period of 2 weeks (Sep 23 to Oct 5).
10/10/2005

This time it’s different, isn’t it?
Boy, what is it with the markets? Each week there are more and more elements of uncertainty piling on - the not-so-well hung German election, Rita following Katrina on the Gulf Coast, and gold shooting to a multi-year high of $ 475 an ounce.
26/09/2005

Goodbye Joe
Me gotta go, me oh my oh me gotta go pole the pirogue down the bayou....
The heartbreaking scenes out of New Orleans these past two weeks brought to mind the lyrics of Jambalaya, one of thousands of great songs that sprung out of the bayou mud of Southern Louisiana over the past few hundred years.
12/09/2005